IEM 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market Price Graph
In case you don't know about the Iowa Electronic Markets, it is an honest to goodness futures market where you can buy a contract that pays you a dollar if Kerry wins and another contract that pays you a dollar if Bush wins. Kerry's price got to be so low that they split the contracts to include vote percentage.
Translation probability of Bush win is .63 or thereabouts.
Thursday, September 23, 2004
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